Autumn 2006

The Revenge of the Shia

by Martin Walker

Every increase in the violence between Sunni and Shia Muslims in Iraq raises the threat of a wider sectarian upheaval that could vault Iran to dominance in the Middle East.

In December 2004, as the United Nations Security Council began to grapple with the challenge of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and as Iraq started its slow topple into civil war, one of the closest and most trusted American allies in the Middle East began to warn publicly of the emergence of a “Shia crescent” in the region. Jordan’s King Abdullah, a Sunni who claims direct descent from the Prophet Muhammad, sounded the alarm that a vast swath of the region, stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean and from the ­oil-­rich Caspian Sea to the even richer Persian Gulf, was coming under the sway of the Shia branch of Islam. More ominously, he implied that this looming Shia empire would take its direction from Tehran. President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt echoed this warning last year when he said, during an interview on ­al-­Arabiya television, “Most of the Shias are loyal to Iran, and not to the countries they are living in.”


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  • Martin Walker, editor emeritus of United Press International and a senior scholar at the Wilson Center, is the author of several nonfiction and fiction books, including The Caves of Périgord (2002).

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COMMENTS (17)

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and in no way represent the views or opinions of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. This section is moderated by Wilson Quarterly staff.

majority Shia???

For God's sake, people, what PROOFS do you have on the Shia being a majority in Lebanon or even Iraq???? If there are no official numbers in Lebanon since the independence more than 5 decades ago (however a new census showed that Sunnis are 1/4 of the population, likewise the Shia, but Sunnis being more by 0.1% only), so..who told you they were 40% and on what grounds did you believe him??? The same trash with Iranian Shia!!!! Iran has many ethnicities, Kurds and Baluchis and overwhelmingly Sunnis, and everybody knows that Iran's population only half of it is Persian, that if there are any Azeris..those are Turks too, the Arabs of Iran are mostly Shia, but more and more are converting to Sunnis because of the Persian persecution of them (just like hundreds of thousands of Iraq's southerners converted to Shi'ism to spite the ruling Ottoman Turks then and due to their ill-treatment of Arabs overall then)!!!! Iran is only 2/3 Shia, and everyone knows that most of its people don't even practice Shi'ism, they are fed up with the Shia religion just like some would believe Afghan Sunnis were with the Taliban rule!!!!! So, what I want to say is that...the Shia we acknowledge to be a majority only in Bahrain (surely more than 50%) Iran (66%) and Azerbajan (not sure about the percentage), but in Iraq..they are under 50%, and so did show Iraqi official papers before the American invasion!!! It's only that Sunni Arabs are a little less than Shia Arabs, but with the Sunni Kurds and Turkomen combined with them, Sunnis become a majority for sure!!!!

Posted by: Hussam Hariri | 2/27/07

response to mr hariri

blablabbla. That is only what you can. Please read history first. then you can see what sunnis did to shias.

Posted by: seeker | 7/5/07

Typical Shia

You can't prove me wrong, "seeker [of falsehood]". I know history more than you can ever imagine, and that includes the history of the evolution of your cult (Shi'ism) and all its tenets (secret and public) more than you can claim you yourself know.

Posted by: Hussam Hariri | 10/20/07

Lol

Lol, Hussam I am a Sunni Muslim kaman from Minyeh and wallahi that sounded like the biggest fabricated rubbish I ever heard. Even going to the lengh to claim Iran(Which has the biggest Shia percentage in the world) to be only 60% are you ok ya akhi? Brother bi rabbak theres no need to lie about these sort of issues. Are you not happy enough with 90% of muslims being from the Sunni madhab is that how much you hate our Shia brethren. My brother your playing right into the Shayateen's hands who bring Agents into the Middle East to try destroy Islam and make it weak by dividing us. Why all the hate ya Hussam my guess is that you have been misinformed about our fellow Muslim brethren like many of our brothers have been but wallah its unhealthy. Be a true follower of our Honourable Messenger(s.a.w).

Posted by: Wasim Osman | 11/14/07

to Mr. Osman

My reply to you is short: learn before you speak, and don't think you are talking to an ignorant here or a kid! Browse this: http://shia-watch.blogspot.com & http://shia-show.blogspot.com

Posted by: Hussam Hariri | 2/20/08

Ignorance

The only difference between Shia and Sunni (or at least the main difference in practice) is that Shia follow the House of Mohammed whereas the Sunni follow money and corruption. Do not beleive? What happened after Imam Ali. Please explain to me how any civilized group of individuals can legitimize the murder of the prophets family, the userper of power Mouawi and his eveil and dispicable children. I do not hate Sunnis, but i do not respect them. Following corrupt leaders and refusing to acknowledge their evil in itself is a crime against islam

Posted by: Bob Berry | 10/25/08

I don't think so

This test is highly problematic, If this same article was written about Judaism or Zionism, it would have been censored and would have never seen the light of the day. This is how a piece of ideology - propaganda ends by a scholar: "Shia promises to be the most potent, and potentially the most destructive." You have no proof of that mr. walker.

Posted by: Golara Hamzeh | 3/28/09

No Point

No one can deny a Shia resurgence, and that is not very much to be seen on the political front. Political power comes when a nation or nations start believing in making a community partners. And they become partners when they seem to be active social contributors. Let us not talk about percentages of this and that. I am from India, and here historically upper caste hindus ruled though they were very less in percentage. It was because they were educated, and incoming powers whether they be turks, persians, Uzbeks, Mughals or later british saw them as partners and contributors. Shia made gains when the middle east was sleeping in darkness or was too arrogant enjoying the new found richness of oil. They were educating themselves. Today Pashtoons are not getting themselves enrolled in Universities in Afghanistan because the mullahs are portraying the educational institute as western influence. Girls are not being encouraged to go to schools and in Saudi Arabia they are also barred from perticipating in the economy of the nation, as part of some kind of tribal belief of keeping family's honour in place. Whereas Hazaras are investing in all the things. Iran has a huge female workforce. Even Hezbollah has female members actively as a part of conotributing workforce. In India Shias have gained a repute of being better educated and sophisticated than their other brethrens. Once these things will be taken care of balance will be equal. I prescribe taking care of one's community and making them grow keeping in mind the vision of tomorrow rather than just invoking "Allah's wrath" and calling another community "liars". Fear and jealousy leads to hatred, after all it was is not "jewishness" that the world hates in jews, it is their remarkable progress through hardwork, whether it be making lobbies in powerful nations or thirst for knowledge. After all making lobbies also need education.

Posted by: Abbas Jalis | 1/4/10

Re: '~~~Dill pay Dastak~~~''

First see the political parties of shia then see the religious gathering of shias in iran iraq pakistan india kuwit uae and other then say your opinion.

Posted by: shah | 2/4/10

Who are the shayateen?

Just when I thought there is a wise voice and from Minia you go and call others Shayateen. Can't we interact with the rest of the world as partners that God created? We don't need to call others shayateen in order for us to love our brothers. You know what? I don't even recommend we call even the people like Hussam shayateen :-)

Posted by: Mandi | 2/27/10

SUNNI-SHIA PEACE ISLAMIC BROTHERS:)

SECTS,CASTES, RACE,CREED,GENDER,ETC. NO DISTINCTION PLEASE-TRUE ISLAM

Posted by: A MUSLIM | 5/9/10

HUMANITY

ALL HUMAN BEINGS ARE THE CHILDREN'S OF ADAM AND EVE ONLY BELIEVE'S AND FOLLOWING ARE DIFFERENT SO DON'T HURT OTHER'S AND KEEP QUITE IN THE MATTER OF BELIEVE

Posted by: ALI RAZA MAHMOOD | 8/27/10

listen truth

hey u mr u said that shias r half in iran and not large in numbers. so listen shias r 95% in iran 40%to45%in lebenon 75%to80% percent in bahrain 48%to 50% pecent in yemen 34%to40%percent in kuwait 75%to80%in azzerbajjan 65%to70%in iraq and they r also large in numbers in pakistan,india,turkey,afghanistan and many parts of the world. ok be sensitive and always speak truth may allah bless every one.

Posted by: hasan | 10/30/10

facts

AOA, PLZ check your books and belief whosoever following abubakar,umar,usman,mavia,yazeed, are the followers of Sunni and whosoever following MUHAMMAD PBUH ,ALI (AS),FATIMA AS ,HASSAN AS HUSSAN AS ARE SHIAS .

Posted by: shakir | 1/15/11

for sure shia

i converted lately to shism islam. i am from egypt born and raised sunni. my grand ma is christian and i always wanted to know which religion to follow. i came up with the answer to become a real practiocing shia muslem el 7amdolelah. pl. everyone read history about what happened le sayedna mohamed and his family salla allah 3alayhi wa alihi wa salam. go and visit sayeda sukayna and u will read 7adis still there on the wall that ali should come after sayedna muh. also suret el ma2eda aya 53 54! what do u need more?? see the tafseer in the old copied of ibn kathir the new ones they took away tafseer el aya to be sayedna ali. sub7an allah ini kont men al zalimeen.religion sect has nothing to do with politics only stupid mubarak made us feel that for years and years. its like saying all sunnis r terrorists and agree with usama bin laden since he is a terrorist.this is a v lame statement.

Posted by: egyptian converted to shia | 2/20/11

my dear hariri we pray that u and ur wahabi brothers stands behind ur imam that iz yazid

Posted by: gardezi | 4/27/11

Facts

Some statistics(muslims only): Iran: 88% Shiite, 12% Sunni Iraq: 63% Shiite, 37% Sunni Bahrein: 70% Shiite, 30% Sunni Azerbaycan: 82% Shiite, 18% Sunni Afghanistan: 85% Sunni, 15% Shiite Turkey: 75-85% Sunni, 15-25% Shiite Pakistan: 75%-80% Sunni, 20-25% Shiite Saudi Arabia: 85% Sunni, 15% Shiite Syria: 85% Sunni, 15% Shiite Lebanon: 50-55% Sunni, 45-50% Shiite Yemen: 65-70% Sunni, 30-35% Shiite Iran Is mostly Shiite because it was enforced on the Iranians by the Safavid Qizilbash soldiers and their leader shah Ismail. And the fact that the later Qajars were very conservative in their time so many Sunni Azeris who were 39% became more and more Shia. Iraq is also majority Shiite but not largely. Many tribes converted due the protest against the Ottomans. Also Shah Ismail, Shah Tahmasp and Shah Abbas were murdering Sunnis everyday and enforcing them to accept Shiism. Also the Shiite Persian migration to the holy cities Karbala and Najaf. Due the Iraq war Sunnis were the target of the American soldiers, while the Shiite did not get involved until Baghdad was taken over. We dont have any documents about Bahrein and its Sunni population in the 17th century. While the Portuguese were masscaring all kinds of Muslims Shah Abbas conquerd the island in 1602 and the Sunnis either accept Shiism due the liberation or were enforced or killed. Azerbaycan had a signtificant number of Sunnis around 40% but it decreased due the Safavid and Qajar time but also many of them left for the Ottoman Empire and later Russia or Turkey. Altough some Sunni groups are working in Azerbaycan as missionary to make the seculars religious including the shiite seculars, Iran is also busy with their clergy . Afghanistans only Shiite population is the Hazars people and some Turkmen tribes around Herat. Turkey and its Shiite population is mainly Alevite and some are Twelvers. During Selim I many Turkmen tribes in East Anatia became Shiite due the Safavid propaganda. Altough some of them came in the late 19th century mostly the Twelvers from Azerbaycan. Pakistans Shiites are descent from Shiite Persian families from 16th and 17th century. Some of the came from India after living centuries in their homelands were there were once Shiite kingdoms. Saudi Arabia is openly discriminating the Shiites and so many of the Shiites in the Hejaz and along the border of Yemen are hidden Shiites while the Shiite population in the Haasa region are openly Shiite. Syrian Shiites are mainly Alawites who's ancestors were Ismaili Shiites. There are little groups of Twelvers in Syria who's ancestors are mostly from either Iraq or Lebanon. Lebanons Shiites are mostly from the early Ismaili Fatimids who later became Twelver due the Safavid influences in the Ottoman Empire. Hezbollah is also getting volunteers from Iran wich increases within years. Yemen does not have a different statistics either in history or now it was something like this due the fact that Zaydis are close to the Sunnis. I hope you have enough information.

Posted by: Abbas | 1/3/13




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