Imagine an American think-tank in operation in 1900. A generous
benefactor has given it a grant to
look into the future and contem-
plate the far-fetched possibility that
European colonial empires might become independent nations by the end of the 20th century. Looking at Asia, its re- searchers compare prospects for two large colonial regions-British India and Rus- sian Turkestan. Which would then have ap- peared to be a better candidate for success- ful evolution into a modem nation-state?