Youthquake in the Middle East and North Africa

In the vibrant heart of Baghdad's Karada Street, 25-year-old Iraqi entrepreneur Ali Radhi is making notable strides. Just a year ago, Radhi launched his second company, 

, aimed at supporting startups in a region rich with youthful potential. His success story reflects the innovative spirit prevalent among the youth in the Middle East and North Africa—and his startup is already showing significant growth.

“I founded my startup in 2023. Initially I worked alone, having previously freelanced with leading companies in web graphics and user experience design. Over time, I expanded by hiring additional team members, and our project progressively grew larger,” Radhi explained. “Today, we operate from an office at the Station, a coworking space designed for startups and small businesses. I manage a diverse team of developers from Iraq, Nigeria, and India.”

The current increase in young people is part of a more profound demographic transformation taking place over the past several decades, known as the youth bulge. 

Radhi’s achievements are emblematic of a broader demographic shift sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa, known as MENA. The region is 

 at an annual rate of 1.6% compared to 0.8% worldwide and adding nearly 7 million people each year. This demographic transformation, characterized by a significant proportion of young people, brings both substantial opportunities and some challenges that vary from one country to another.

 “A large, young workforce can drive economic growth—if properly harnessed through education and employment opportunities. Younger populations also tend to be more entrepreneurial and adaptable, potentially leading to increased innovation and business creation,” said Aya Jaafar, a labor economist at the International Labor Organization's regional office for the Arab States. “If provided with the right skills, they can also drive economic diversification—including in the digital and green economies, amongst others.”

However, Jaafar warns that this demographic dividend can become a “curse” if job creation does not keep pace with population growth, bringing higher rates of unemployment—particularly among the youth—and potentially leading to economic instability and social unrest.

“Unemployed individuals also strain social protection systems, requiring reforms to ensure sustainability. High rates of labor underutilization also translate into lower economic growth, limited potential for economic diversification, digitalization and transition to the green economy,” Jaafar added.

A Region on the Rise: Understanding the MENA Demographic Surge

The current increase in young people is part of a more profound demographic transformation taking place over the past several decades, known as the youth bulge. This term refers to having a significant portion of the population between the ages of 15 and 29.

During the early to mid-1980s, many countries in the MENA region experienced a significant decline in infant mortality rates, leading to larger family sizes. This period of high fertility, coupled with improved child survival rates, resulted in a substantial youth population by the turn of the century. As these individuals entered their reproductive years, they contributed to a second wave of population growth.

According to the International Labor Organization, the youth unemployment rate in the region is projected to be 25.5% in 2024, more than three times higher than the adult unemployment rate, and significantly above the global youth unemployment rate.

 for the region vividly illustrate a steady increase of the working-age population (15–64 years), a substantial bulge in those between 25 and 35 years, and another in the 5 to 15-year-old cohorts, as of 2024.

“The fertility rate temporarily increased during the peak reproductive years of the youth bulge generation. This led to a compound effect: a large number of potential parents coupled with a higher fertility rate. Consequently, there was a baby boom around the mid-2000s, which lasted for roughly 10 years,” said Ragui Assaad, a professor at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota.

 more than doubled from 109 million in the 1960s to 256 million by 1990; it reached 321 million by 2000 and currently stands at around 500 million. The first generation of the youth bulge is now in their 30s and 40s, having just completed their high fertility phase. Meanwhile, the echo generation, as described by Assaad, is now entering teenagehood and is poised to significantly impact the region's socioeconomic landscape.

This will put even more pressure on the different systems, as it is estimated that half of the countries in the MENA region are 

 to experience a population growth of at least 50 percent from their 2015 levels. Iraq, Sudan, and the State of Palestine are expected to see their populations just about double their 2015 population by 2050. Some countries, like Libya, Tunisia, and Morocco, will experience only a slight population increase, while Lebanon will be the only country in the region to experience a population decrease.

Youth Unemployment Soars: A Regional Crisis

As Assaad describes, the MENA region has faced significant stress in recent years due to a large number of children reaching school age. This stress is now shifting to the labor market, with many young people entering the workforce amidst insufficient job opportunities. According to the International Labor Organization, the youth unemployment rate in the region is projected to be 25.5% in 2024, more than three times higher than the adult unemployment rate, and significantly above the global youth unemployment rate, which is projected at 12.8% in 2024. Youth unemployment is even higher among women, 

 39.7% in the MENA region in 2024, with stark disparities between countries, from as high as 63.3% in Iraq to as low as 1.6% in Qatar.

Sondos Mahmoud Fedda, a 29-year-old graduate from Philadelphia University in Amman, Jordan, finished her studies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite earning a bachelor's degree in architecture and engineering, she has been unable to secure a job.

“I graduated in March 2020, and once the lockdown started, I couldn't look for jobs. After everything opened up again, I created my CV and went to every possible architectural, engineering, or civil engineering company,” Fedda said.

Amidst these complex challenges, the personal stories of young people reflect both the struggles and aspirations that characterize current circumstances.

She managed to find an internship with the government, but after a year, still had not found full-time employment. Today, Fedda continues to apply for jobs online, but the only opportunities she finds are freelance jobs. Four years after graduating, Fedda is frustrated.

“I spent five years in university, and it feels like it was all for nothing. It makes me question why I invested so much time and money into my education if it doesn’t lead to a job in the end,” Fedda said. “I know so many people who graduated as engineers but didn't find any jobs here, so they either started something else or went abroad to work in fields unrelated to their studies.”

Those with higher education levels are notably more inclined to consider emigrating compared to those with less education, suggesting a potential risk of brain drain in the region. According to the latest data by the Arab Barometer, more than half of the college-educated populations in Sudan (60%), Jordan (56%), and Tunisia (56%) 

 a desire to leave their homelands. With an ongoing economic crisis in Lebanon nearly two-thirds of youth ages 18-29 

 to leave, presumably due to the lack of hope they have for their futures.

Bridging the Gap: Education and Job Creation in the Region

According to Jaafar, the high youth unemployment rate stems from insufficient capacity to generate adequate, decent, and productive jobs for an increasingly educated workforce.

“Many economies are either reliant on the oil sector or public sector, the latter becoming increasingly oversaturated. The private sector on the contrary is underdeveloped, with a high share of jobs created in the informal economy, associated with low-paid and low-productive jobs, unattractive to the educated cohort," Jaafar said. “The business climate and regulatory framework in the region pose significant barriers to entrepreneurship. Young entrepreneurs often face difficulties in launching, expanding, and maintaining their ventures due to cumbersome bureaucracy, insufficient supportive policies, and scarce resources.”

Access to financing is also a particularly challenging issue, as young business owners frequently encounter obstacles in obtaining credit, venture capital, and other financial services, which hampers their ability to innovate and grow their enterprises.

In Iraq, Radhi's attempt to register his first company illustrates these challenges. Despite investing approximately 3 million Iraqi dinars (equivalent to roughly $2,500) and waiting for a year and a half, he was unable to complete the lengthy registration process.

“Today, I am trying to register my second company, but I am still mired in the second stage of the fourth stage of the registration process. It not only requires substantial financial resources but also consumes a significant amount of my time,” Radhi said.

Despite these challenges, some policies have been implemented in the region to align education with the needs of the local economies. For example, the 

  is one of the largest privately funded philanthropic organizations in the Arab region and is at the forefront of advancing the professionalization of student academia. They equip students with essential skills such as digital literacy, communications, and critical thinking.

“We began by consulting with our hiring partners to determine the profiles of candidates they plan to hire in the next three years. Understanding the difficulties they face in finding suitable candidates, we proposed a solution. What if our foundation provided certifications through short intensive courses lasting three months or six weeks?” explained Dr. Sonia Ben Jaafar, CEO of the Abdulla Al Ghurair Foundation. “We then presented these trained individuals to the hiring partners. In return, we asked them to commit to either hiring these candidates as paid interns, offering them interviews, or providing opportunities for employment, promotion, or further development.”

In addition to these educational initiatives, there are signs of demographic stabilization in some parts of the region. The fertility rate has 

 from 5.9 live births per woman in 1975 to 2.7 in 2024, with further decreases expected in the coming decades.  While Tunisia, and most Gulf countries have 

 near replacement-level fertility rates, indicating a shift toward demographic stability, other countries like Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine still grapple with high fertility. Countries such as Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria linger somewhere in between.

As professor Assaad observes, “It looks like different parts of the region are following similar patterns, but at different times. North Africa, for example, may have progressed through this process earlier, while the Arab East still has areas with relatively high fertility rates.”

“We now have many workers who are leveraging their communities and contributing to others, creating benefits for everyone involved. It is crucial to understand that these are young people eager to develop their skills,” Dr. Ben Jaafar said regarding the youth potential. “They are curious, respectful, and want to be contributing members of society like anyone else and take pride in their accomplishments. If we give them that chance, they will thrive.”

Clément Gibon is a freelance photographer and journalist based in Amman, Jordan, who documents humanitarian affairs, human rights, and social conflict in the Middle East. He has written for a variety of English, Arab and French media including 

Time Magazine, Middle East Eye, Wilson Quarterly, Daraj, Al Monitor, Le Monde Diplomatique, and Libération.

Cover photo: Dr. Sonia Ben Jaafar, CEO, engaging with students enrolled in the Nomu Al Ghurair-Talaaqa Program in the United Arab Emirates, June 12, 2024. Courtesy of the Abdulla Al Ghurair Foundation.

The Middle East and North African population boom shows no signs of slowing down soon. This increasingly young population has the potential to lead regional development in innovative and sustainable ways. But if job creation cannot keep up with the growing educated workforce, then unemployment will reign with economic instability. Clément Gibon explains why a lack of financing and entrepreneur-supportive policies stand in the way of youth-driven advantages.  

Navigating a a demographic tidal wave in the region.

The first rays of sunshine slip through dense palm leaves, lighting up the face of Thomas Nampe Moyo, a 40-year-old farmer from the town of Anna, on the outskirts of Côte d’Ivoire’s capital. For more than a decade, Moyo has been growing manioc, a root vegetable crop essential to support his three children. In recent years, however, his lush paradise has turned into a fierce struggle for survival as the challenges of an increasingly unpredictable climate persist.

For Moyo, memories abound of days gone by, when the seasons bestowed flourishing manioc crops. Time has altered the symphony of the seasons and the once reliable rhythm has weakened, giving way to unpredictable rains that disturb former serene dry periods which now include  untimely downpours. Erratic climatic fluctuations, formerly a rarity, now cast a shadow over Moyo’s life, where the tuber cops often decay.

“Over the years, my production has dropped drastically. My yield of manioc per hectare has been halved,” Moyo said. “Other farmers in the village face the same challenges as I do—and are also forced to turn to other crops.”

In addition to the unpredictable weather, village farmers are contending with an increase in crop-destroying insects, and a decrease in fish to catch. To meet his challenges, Moyo joined a peri-urban farm program set up by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) last February that helped him cope with climate disruptions. Through the program, Moyo made a strategic shift in his agricultural practices, opting to cultivate shorter-duration crops instead of crops like manioc, which require a nine-month growth period and are highly susceptible to weather variations.

“Today, I'm learning to adapt to market gardening, organic farming, and permaculture—which allows me to continue working the land,” Moyo said with pride, showing off his lush new plots of lettuce, spinach, and cucumber. “These short-lived crops make it possible to juggle with the mood swings of the climate.”

The Disproportionate Impact of Climate Change

The Côte d’Ivoire is not the only country experiencing the harsh realities of climate change. Africa as a whole is particularly vulnerable to its effects, with the continent 

 warming at a rate between 1991 and 2021 that is higher than the global average. This has made Africa one of the continents most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

“The current state of climate in Africa is indeed a grave concern as the continent grapples with a myriad of climate-related challenges that have far-reaching consequences for the environment and the socio-economic well-being of its population,” said Dr. Ernest Asi Afiesimama, a Nigerian environmental and climate scientist at the World Meteorological Organization.

With one of the fastest-growing populations in the world, the lack of electricity access could escalate into an even more critical concern for the continent's sustainable development, and climate resilience.

Dr. Afiesimama noted the increase in  rainfall throughout numerous countries, along with the increased risk for severe flooding and erosion, especially in the western part of the continent. There are also prolonged periods of scorching heatwaves and droughts, which pose a significant threat to the already delicate ecological equilibrium.

Extreme weather events have been particularly deadly this year, with Cyclone Freddy 

 more than 1,000 lives in Malawi last March and flooding in Congo that 

400 lives in May. For its part, North Africa experienced extreme heat waves this summer, with 

 leading to forest fires and loss of life in Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco. And in September, Libya was  struck by the destructive force of Storm Daniel. At the time of this writing, the World Health Organization reported at 

, and another 8,000 individuals  missing.

Africa is also facing rising  sea levels, which are especially 

 in the Red Sea and southwest Indian Ocean regions. By 2030, between 108 to 116 million people in Africa are 

 to confront the alarming risks posed by rising sea levels, especially in coastal cities like Alexandria, Egypt; Lomé, Togo; and Cape Town, South Africa. This phenomenon is projected to escalate significantly, 

 by the region's rapid population growth and urbanization in coastal areas.

“Climate change acts as a threat multiplier: amplifying conflicts in the region, jeopardizing food security, and disrupting socioeconomic development. It also works as an inequality multiplier, exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities with a particular impact on women,” said Hind Aïssaoui Bennani, regional migrations specialist for environment and climate change for IOM’s West and Central Africa office.

In 2022, Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a staggering increase in disaster-related displacements, with the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center 

 a near-tripling of such occurrences compared to 2021. In 2022, the continent witnessed more than 16.5 million internal displacements, accounting for 27% of the world's total.

Harnessing Traditional Knowledge, and Today’s Tools to Mitigate the Effects of Climate Change

Nearly half of the people were displaced by extreme climate events, which caused severe disruptions, particularly in agriculture, a vital industry for millions of lives. By the end of the previous year, about 146 million people in 36 Sub-Saharan African countries 

 a severe food crisis, including the Mbororo pastoralists in Chad, who were directly affected.

“Rainfall intensity has undergone drastic changes, with heavy showers sometimes leading to flooding and insufficient rainfall leading to droughts at other times. Both of these extremes contribute to food insecurity because crops are destroyed—and pastures are dying,” said Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, president of the Association for Indigenous Women and Peoples of Chad, and a member of the Mbororo community.

“Our nomadic and semi-nomadic way of life makes us particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. However, it also makes us the best solution builders as we have adapted to living in diverse ecosystems, allowing us to exploit various resources,” Ibrahim added.

For more than two decades, Ibrahim has been a champion of Indigenous peoples' rights, advocating for their voices to be heard in political discussions and their traditional knowledge to be taken into account when making decisions. To better adapt to the effects of climate change, Ibrahim spearheaded a project, working closely with local leaders to develop a comprehensive map of local resources. This map combines Indigenous knowledge and satellite images and includes a wide range of information about settlements and fresh-water resources, drought-resistant crop locations, sacred lands, and roads.

“This project has proven instrumental in developing a strategy for communities to mitigate conflicts over resource management, enabling us to plan and share natural resources more effectively,” Ibrahim said. She added that initiatives of this nature contribute to fostering constructive dialogues between communities and the government, enabling them to make more informed decisions about the management of their natural resources and the preservation of their traditional knowledge. The Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim mapping project stands as a shining example among numerous unique initiatives that bring together traditional knowledge, modern science, and technology.

Climate Leadership Through Technology and Renewable Solutions

The energy sector has also proven to be a valuable lever in enhancing resilience against climate change.

 from The World Bank, access to electricity remains an urgent issue in Sub-Saharan Africa, with only half of the population having reliable access to power. With one of the fastest-growing populations in the world—at a 

 of 2.5%—the lack of electricity access could escalate into an even more critical concern for the continent's sustainable development, and climate resilience.

For now, fossil fuel remains the primary source of energy for the continent and access to electricity remains too expensive for many households. However, 

 to the International Energy Agency, Africa is home to 60% of the world's best solar resources, and Africans are using technology to unleash this abundant source of green energy.

Unlocking the renewable energy resources that we have in our continent is not only good for Africa, it is good for the rest of the world. -President William Ruto of Kenya

Nthabiseng Mosia, an entrepreneur from Ghana who later moved to South Africa, co-founded the company 

 in 2016. In just a few years, the company has provided electricity to more than one million people in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Using flexible financings, the company makes it easier to introduce solar panels in homes, small businesses, and in larger commercial and industrial settings. Through the utilization of an uninterrupted power system, energy is stored in batteries, ensuring a continuous supply of electricity from the grid, even during blackouts.

“Electrifying entire countries necessitates significant investments in infrastructure, a financial undertaking that may pose challenges for nations with limited available funds. Our primary goal is to provide easy access to affordable energy,” Mosia said. “Renewable energy—particularly solar power—brings forth not only cost savings compared to fossil fuels, but also opens up avenues for income generation.”

Today, Easy Solar stands out as one of Africa's most rapidly 

 companies. They have consistently doubled their household reach each year, and are aiming to provide clean and affordable energy to many more households in the next three years.

Climate Justice in Africa, Climate Solutions for the World

Activists who are working to find solutions to the increasing challenge of climate change in Africa often highlight that the continent’s global anthropogenic CO2 emissions 

 for just 7% between 1950 and 2019. Today, at 4%, Africa maintains one of the world's lowest per capita and total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

“I believe there is a fundamental question of justice regarding how we tackle climate change in Africa,” Mosia said. “There is an urgent need for greater action from countries like the United States, Europe, and China.”

Climate justice emphasizes holding more developed countries accountable for their historical emissions alongside their support of Africa in its efforts to achieve sustainable development and resilience in the face of climate change.

“My community acts without knowing who is responsible for climate change because we care about our environment. We grow up like this: respecting nature, taking only what we need, and giving back,” said Ibrahim.

As COP 28 approaches, many activists and advocacy groups including 

, are demanding an end to financing fossil fuels, which 

 for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions—making them the most significant contributor to global climate change.

“The action of the industrialized countries that have historically profited from exploiting natural resources and largely contributed to CO2 emissions are not yet commensurate with the severity of the climate change challenges we are witnessing,” said Ibrahim. “Our message as Indigenous peoples for the COP 28 is ending fossil fuel—and it is not negotiable.”

In September, during the Africa Climate Summit (ACS) hosted by the Kenyan government, more than 20 African nations came together to unanimously 

 the Nairobi Declaration. This declaration outlines Africa's collective aspirations for climate finance and debt relief ahead of COP 28. Among the key demands are a global carbon tax applied to the utilization and trade of fossil fuels, access to low-interest loans for sustainable green energy initiatives in Africa, and a call for fundamental reforms within the global financial system.

“In Africa, we can be a green industrial hub that helps other regions achieve their net-zero strategies by 2050,” said President William Ruto of Kenya during the recent summit. “Unlocking the renewable energy resources that we have in our continent is not only good for Africa, it is good for the rest of the world.”

Clément Gibon is a freelance photographer and journalist, who documents humanitarian affairs, human rights, and social conflict in the Middle East. He has written for a variety of English, Arab and French media including 

Time Magazine, Middle East Eye, Wilson Quarterly, Daraj, Al Monitor, Le Monde Diplomatique, 

Cover photo: Kenyan President William Ruto addresses delegates during the closing session of the Africa Climate Summit at the Kenyatta International Convention Center in Nairobi, Kenya, Wednesday, September 6, 2023. (AP Photo/Khalil Senosi).

Clement Gibon reports on the disproportionate effects that climate change is having on Africa, and the role of climate justice in helping the continent--and the world--mitigate the impact of a warming planet.

Unveiling challenges, seizing opportunities, and embracing technology to provide climate leadership for the continent—and the world.

Africa's Climate Crisis

Disrupted Food Supplies in the Middle East

, and a few dozen cooks are busy cutting freshly supplied local tomatoes, peeling kilos of potatoes, and preparing a brightly colored salad. As the vegetables finish simmering, the smell of spices fills the room, and the last pieces of chicken are added to the 

—a dish made of rice and nuts. The first customers arrive.

Pascale Barghout, a 49-year-old former childcare worker, is a regular here and is waiting for Nation Station to open. Created in an abandoned gas station northeast of Beirut after the 2020 port explosion that killed more than 244 people and injured at least 8,000, this community kitchen provides as many as 220 hot meals a week on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays to Geitawi residents who can no longer afford to eat.

In the space of two years, Lebanon has undergone an unprecedented financial crisis, 

 by the World Bank as one of the 10 most severe global crises since the mid-19th century, possibly one of the top 3. While food prices 

 by 2,067 percent between 2018 and 2021, a large portion of the population slipped into poverty. The war in Ukraine, with the resulting rise in world food prices, comes at a critical time for the country, particularly those who are already struggling. As a result, more people are being forced to rely on food provided by relatives and charitable community organizations.

Food prices were already high before the Ukrainian conflict. Now we are even more concerned.

“Cheese, dairy products, meat, and fish have been out of our reach for at least two years. With the war in Ukraine and the rising prices, these products are becoming even more unaffordable for us,” Barghout said. “The cost of living in Lebanon is beyond comprehension. Even our personal belongings, that we sell to support ourselves, are not enough. Every day we wonder if we will be able to eat and we rarely have a full stomach,” she added.

While Barghout struggles daily to feed herself, millions more are also indirectly affected by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The war, coupled with other protracted crises, is causing food insecurity for a large portion of people in the Middle East—a situation that many experts expect to worsen.

Disruption of Agricultural Production and Supply Chains for Grains and Oilseeds

Considered the breadbasket of the world, Russia and Ukraine supply more than 

, feeding millions of people. With the destruction of land and agricultural infrastructure in eastern Ukraine and the cessation of agricultural activities in a large part of the country, domestic and export production of wheat and oilseeds has decreased considerably. At the same time, a Russian blockade has stopped the transporting of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea, forcing more complicated and more expensive routes. With the numerous economic sanctions that Russia is facing, the country has also seen its wheat and fertilizer exports greatly reduced. As a result, food prices on the world market have risen steadily since the war began.

In March, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Food Price Index, which measures the monthly change in international prices for commonly-traded food commodities, 

 a record high with an increase of 17 percent for the cereals price index, and 33 percent for the vegetable oil price index. Given that wheat products provide 

 by people in the Middle East, and vegetable oil is used in many dishes, these rising costs have a significant impact.

For countries such as Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, which are experiencing a depreciation of their local currency, adapting to new world market prices is proving to be even more complicated. Abeer Etefa, senior spokesperson and senior regional communications officer for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region of the UN World Food Program, monitors the food insecurity crisis, and she is particularly concerned about the ripple effect of the war in Ukraine.

“We were already worried because food prices were already high before the Ukrainian conflict. Now we are even more concerned because, in March, they reached unprecedented levels, breaking all records of the food crisis, even those of 2008 and 2011,” she said.

“This war comes at a very difficult time for the MENA region, which is experiencing an economic downturn, contractual crises due to protracted conflicts, and the consequences of the global epidemic that has left millions of people very vulnerable,” she added.

My nieces and nephews cry most days from being hungry.

Combined with rising global fuel and food prices due to the war in Ukraine, the cost of a family’s minimum monthly food needs, referred to as the food basket, became particularly high. The annual increase for 2021, which was already 351 percent in Lebanon, 97 percent in Syria, and 81 percent in Yemen, is expected to be even higher in 2022. In Lebanon alone, the food basket now 

exceeds the official monthly minimum wage

, making at least half the local population and most refugees living in the country 

On her way home after picking up her lunch at Nation Station, Barghout passed a supermarket where prices have changed multiple times in just a few days. She stopped and sighed.

“I can't even go to the supermarket to buy the most basic products anymore. Simple things like bread and cooking oil are also becoming extremely expensive. If the situation continues to get worse, I don't know what we will be able to eat,” she said.

The Danger of Food Insecurity and the Exacerbation of Economic and Social Crises

With rising prices and the inability of millions of people to access basic commodities, food insecurity is increasing in the region, resulting in more malnutrition and more people going hungry. In Yemen’s Sana’a governorate, 14-year-old Salma*—who lives with her parents, two sisters with disabilities, two brothers, and the families of her two married brothers—struggles every day to secure food. The escalation of the war in 2015 left them unable to pay rent, and Salma’s family is now living in a mosque. The recent and drastic increase in food prices brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made it very difficult for this family to fulfill its basic needs.

“Our life is unbearable inside the house and outside the house,” said Salma. “Life is becoming harder and harder for us each day. It is too expensive to live in and the food prices are very high. My nieces and nephews cry most days from being hungry. Usually, we have to skip eating dinner or breakfast, but there are many times where we had to skip dinner of that day and breakfast of the next day to eat only one meal a day,” she added.

As people skip meals or eat poorly to cope with this new situation, other coping mechanisms have wide-ranging social implications. “As families are less able to spend part of their income on education, and are unable to feed everyone, we can expect an increase in child labor, and forced marriages,” said Matthew Hall, regional policy analyst for Save the Children’s Middle East and Eastern Europe regional office.

The situation is particularly worrying and could lead to political and social instability, including famine, potential riots, and mass migration. During the protests of 2011 that shook many Arab countries, the prices of basic food prices rose rapidly, with the Food Price Index reaching record highs, and food insecurity affecting many, exacerbating mass discontent among the population.

“We have not yet hit bottom, and the worst is yet to come. We know that when food prices rise, millions of people can no longer afford to eat, making the situation very volatile,” said Etefa.

“It is difficult to predict whether we will see massive protests like in 2011, but we believe there is a strong link between hunger, conflict, and political instability. Hunger leads to conflict in many cases, and conflicts themselves fuel food insecurity. It’s a vicious circle,” she added.

For many years, the various governments in the region subsidized basic foodstuffs, which contributed to political stability. Conversely, when regimes, for various reasons, had to remove the subsidies, protests emerged. This was the case in Egypt in 1977, when President Anwar Sadat's attempt to 

 led to the deaths of at least 70 people after protests were suppressed. Similarly, Tunisian president Habib Bourguiba's decision to lift subsidies on wheat and semolina in 1983 led to a 

More recently, soaring food prices in 2008 played a major role in the massive protests that rocked Arab nations in 2011 and led to the overthrow of Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and the end of Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year regime in Egypt. According to Hall, the stability of the region in the coming years will be closely linked to the ability of governments to maintain subsidies to keep food prices affordable. Many countries, however, do not have the financial resources to maintain the subsidies.

“Unfortunately, most of the means used by governments to cope with this situation are to lower the standards of subsidized staple foods, especially in terms of quantity and quality. Bread is made with other ingredients such as corn flour and even fewer ingredients to make it cheaper. To cope with the price increase, we also notice a decrease in the quantity of standardized bread available on the market,” noted Hall.

While it is still too early to have exact figures on the number of people who will suffer from malnutrition, past crises in the region have already proven that the impact on people’s health is significant. Even with enough calories, people were already suffering from inadequate nutrition, resulting in malnutrition ranging from stunting to obesity.

A Decrease in International Aid, Aggravating the Vulnerabilities of Populations in Conflict Zones

While the situation is already precarious, humanitarian aid has also decreased in the region. Last March, the UN 

received less than a third of the pledges on an aid plan

 needed to avert a humanitarian catastrophe in war-torn Yemen. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, more than 17.4 million people are already in need of assistance, a number that is 

expected to rise to 19 million by the end of the year

. The number of people facing extreme hunger and starvation is also expected to increase by 42 percent.

As Salma’s mother supports the family by cleaning houses, her married children are day laborers, and the father is ill and can no longer work. Despite their hard work, they can barely put enough food on the table or cover the medications needed for the father and the two girls with disabilities. Showing one of the meals consisting of bread, 

 (yogurt), and a tomato sauce that the family usually has, Salma describes a particularly difficult daily life.

“When there is no food available, it means we will be hungry. We have no choice, when there is no money, it means that the two meals we eat might not be available, and we will probably sleep hungry that night,” she said. “We are buried with loans. We buy bread and yogurt from the store next to our house. At times we buy potatoes as well, and sometimes tomatoes, to make the sauce for dipping. My mom is old and works so hard. When she has money, the first thing she does is pay the store owner a little of the loan, so he can let us buy from him again during the month,” she added.

With agriculture largely affected by the consequences of climate change in the eastern part of the country, and a prolonged conflict, Syria has also seen its international aid

 budget. While more than three-quarters of the population, representing 12 million people, are already suffering from acute food insecurity, at least 1.2 million people are at risk of going hungry. With the ripple effect of the war in Ukraine, millions of people like Salma and Barghout are plunged into growing food insecurity. According to the various experts interviewed for this article, the war in Ukraine only underscores and worsens the food security problem that has been present in the Middle East for several years.

“Even if the war in Ukraine were resolved tomorrow, with the agreement of both sides, and the naval blockade lifted, we would still have a food security crisis in the Middle East that is worsening over time,” said Hall.

Decreasing Middle East and North African dependence on food imports is a priority for improving food security in the region. Developing domestic agriculture while taking into account the consequences of climate change, improving food storage, and implementing economic strategies to manage the economic risks associated with food price fluctuations are among the various solutions being explored to improve the situation.

Clément Gibon is a freelance French journalist and photographer who has been based in Lebanon since 2019. He has collaborated with the NGO Act for the Disappeared and the Samir Kassir Foundation, among others. His experiences have led him to develop a particular interest in issues related to socioeconomics, political governance, and security in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Cover photo: Destruction of grain silos in the port of Beirut two years after the explosion. Courtesy Clément Gibon

For countries such as Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, which are experiencing a depreciation of their local currency, adapting to new world market prices is proving to be even more complicated. Our reporter examines how disrupted food supplies in the Middle East are exacerbating food insecurity, in Beirut and beyond.

Our reporter examines how disrupted food supplies in the Middle East are exacerbating food insecurity, in Beirut and beyond.